Wuhan Ki Hawa Se Badla Mausam: Kya Dragon Aur Elephant Phir Se Dost Ban Rahe Hain?
Namaste aur salaam dosto, aapka swagat hai Tazakhabhar.com par, jahan khabar sirf di nahi jaati, balki uske har pehlu ko khangaala jaata hai. Aaj hum baat kar rahe hain ek aisi geopolitical shift ki, jiski kalpana kuch saal pehle tak karna bhi mushkil tha. Ek taraf hai Himalayan border par ankh dikhane wala Dragon, yaani China, aur doosri taraf hai apni jagah par adig khada Elephant, yaani hamara Bharat. Dono ke beech Doklam standoff ka ghaav abhi taza hi tha ki achanak se rishton mein aisi garmahat aa gayi hai, jaise sardiyon ke baad basant aa gaya ho. Lekin is badalte mausam ke peeche ka kaaran kya hai? Kya yeh dil se nikli dosti hai ya phir majboori mein milaya gaya haath? Aur is poori kahani mein America ke President Donald Trump ka ‘villain’ ya ‘sutradhar’ wala role kya hai? Chaliye, aaj is ‘China-india Bhai-Bhai 2.0′ ki gehraaiyon mein utarte hain aur samjhte hain is nayi geopolitical uthal-puthal ka poora sach, sirf Tazakhabhar.com par.
Yaad kijiye 2017 ka woh daur, jab Doklam mein 73 din tak dono deshon ki senaayein aamne-saamne aakar khadi ho gayi theen. Poori duniya saans roke dekh rahi thi ki kahin Asia ke do parmanu shaktiyon ke beech jung na chhid jaaye. Rishte itne kharaab ho gaye the ki lag raha tha ab patari par aane mein salon lag jaayenge. Phir achanak se picture badli. Pradhan Mantri Narendra Modi aur Chinese President Xi Jinping ke beech Wuhan mein ek ‘informal summit’ hui. Bina kisi agenda ke, bina kisi media ke shor-sharaabe ke. Yeh sirf ek meeting nahi thi, yeh ek signal tha. Signal poori duniya ko, aur khaas kar Washington mein baithe Donald Trump ko, ki ab Asia ke do bade Sher apne mamle khud suljhane ki koshish kar rahe hain.
Trump Ka ‘America First’ Factor: Dushman Ka Dushman Dost?
Toh aakhir aisa kya hua ki jo do padosi kal tak ek doosre ko border par ghoor rahe the, woh achanak se dosti ki baatein karne lage? Iska sabse bada jawab milta hai Atlantic ke us paar, White House mein. Donald Trump ki ‘America First’ policy ne poori duniya ka aarthik aur raajneetik samikaran (equation) hi badal kar rakh diya. Trump ne aate hi sabse pehle China ke khilaaf ek trade war chhed diya. Chinese products par bhari-bharkam tariffs laga diye gaye, jisse China ki economy par zabardast pressure pada. China, jise ‘duniya ki factory’ kaha jaata hai, uske liye American market oxygen ki tarah hai. Jab Trump ne is oxygen supply ko kam karna shuru kiya, toh Beijing mein khatre ki ghanti bajne lagi.
Lekin Trump ka pressure sirf China tak seemit nahi tha. Unhone apne doston ko bhi nahi baksha. Bharat par bhi steel aur aluminum par tariffs laga diye gaye. Iran ke saath nuclear deal todkar Bharat jaise deshon par pressure banaya gaya ki woh Iran se tel khareedna band kar de, jo hamare liye ek bada strategic aur economic jhatka tha. H-1B visa ke niyamon ko sakht karke Indian IT professionals ke liye mushkilein khadi kar di. Basically, Trump ki policy ne ek aisi situation paida kar di jahan China aur India, dono ko hi America se unpredictability aur pressure ka saamna karna pad raha tha. Yahi woh common ground tha, yahi woh ‘common enemy’ wala factor tha jisne dono padosiyon ko aapas mein baat karne par majboor kar diya. Rajneeti ka purana usool hai – dushman ka dushman, dost hota hai. Yahan par America ‘dushman’ toh nahi, lekin ek ‘common challenge’ zaroor ban gaya tha.
Economic Majboori Ya Strategic Zaroorat? Is Nayi Dosti Ka Asli Engine Kya Hai?
Yeh kehna ki yeh dosti sirf Trump ke pressure ki vajah se hai, thoda saralikaran (oversimplification) hoga. Iske peeche thos aarthik aur strategic kaaran bhi hain. China ke liye, jaisa ki humne upar zikr kiya, American market par nirbharta kam karna zaroori ho gaya hai. Aise mein use naye markets ki talaash hai, aur Bharat se bada aur tezi se badhta hua market aur kaun sa ho sakta hai? 130 crore logon ka desh, ek burgeoning middle class – yeh China ke investors aur companies ke liye ek sunhera mauka hai. Isliye China ab Bharat ke saath trade deficit (vyapar ghaata) kam karne aur Indian products ko apne market mein zyada access dene ki baatein kar raha hai.
Doosri taraf, Bharat ko apni ‘Make in India’ aur infrastructure projects ke liye bade paimane par investment ki zaroorat hai. Road, railway, ports, smart cities – in sab ke liye paisa chahiye. China ke paas is waqt duniya mein sabse zyada capital hai. Agar dono deshon ke beech political tension kam hoti hai, toh Chinese investment Bharat aa sakta hai, jisse hamari economy ko boost milega. Tazakhabhar.com ki team ne is mudde par kai experts se baat ki aur sabka yahi manna hai ki yeh ek ‘win-win situation’ ho sakti hai, agar ise aapsi vishwas ke saath aage badhaya jaaye. Isliye, yeh sirf ek geopolitical majboori nahi, balki ek aarthik zaroorat bhi hai jo in dono deshon ko paas la rahi hai.
Doklam Se Wuhan Tak: Border Par Tanaav Sach Mein Kam Hua Hai Kya?
Sabse bada sawaal jo har Bhartiya ke mann mein hai, woh yeh hai ki kya is nayi dosti ka asar zameen par, yaani hamare border par dikhega? Kya China par vishwas kiya jaa sakta hai? Iska jawab haan aur na, dono mein hai. Wuhan Summit ke baad sabse ahem faislon mein se ek yeh tha ki dono deshon ki senaayein aapas mein ‘strategic guidance’ aur communication ko behtar karengi. Iska maksad tha ki Doklam jaisi situation dobara paida na ho, jahan ek choti si galatfehmi ek badi jung ka roop le sakti hai. Iske baad se, dono taraf ke military commanders ke beech hotlines sthapit hui hain aur meetings zyada regular ho gayi hain.
Iska matlab yeh nahi hai ki border dispute sulajh gaya hai. Woh mudda abhi bhi wahin ka wahin hai. China abhi bhi Arunachal Pradesh par apna daava karta hai aur Aksai Chin par uska kabza barkarar hai. Lekin farq ‘dispute resolution’ (vivad samadhan) ki jagah ‘dispute management’ (vivad prabandhan) par aa gaya hai. Dono deshon ne shayad yeh samajh liya hai ki is vishal border dispute ko suljhane mein shayad dashak lag jaayein, lekin iski vajah se woh aarthik aur strategic maukon ko haath se jaane nahi de sakte. Isliye, koshish yeh hai ki border par shanti banaye rakhi jaaye taaki baaki kshetro mein sahyog aage badh sake. Yeh ek pragmatic approach hai, lekin iski safalta is baat par nirbhar karegi ki dono taraf se is ‘Wuhan Spirit’ ko kitni imaandari se nibhaya jaata hai.
Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) aur CPEC: Asli Khel Abhi Baaki Hai!
Is ‘China-India Bhai-Bhai 2.0’ ki kahani mein ek bahut bada ‘speed-breaker’ hai, aur uska naam hai Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), aur iska hissa China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). BRI President Xi Jinping ka dream project hai, jiske zariye woh poore Asia, Europe aur Africa ko sadak, rail aur samundri raston se jodna chahte hain. Lekin iska ek hissa, CPEC, Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) se hokar guzarta hai, jise Bharat apni samprabhuta (sovereignty) ka ullanghan maanta hai. Yahi vajah hai ki Bharat ne BRI ka hamesha virodh kiya hai.
Ab jab dono deshon ke beech rishte sudhar rahe hain, toh is mudde ka kya hoga? China lagaatar Bharat ko BRI mein shaamil hone ka nyota de raha hai. Kuch experts ka manna hai ki shayad koi beech ka raasta nikala ja sakta hai, jaise ‘BRI’ ke label ke bina kuch specific projects par sahyog karna. Jaise ki Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) economic corridor. Lekin CPEC par Bharat ka stand bilkul saaf hai aur usse piche hatne ki sambhavna na ke barabar hai. Isliye, yeh dekhna bahut dilchasp hoga ki yeh nayi dosti is sabse bade strategic roadblock ko kaise paar karti hai. Hum Tazakhabhar.com par is development par apni nazar banaye rakhenge aur aapko har update dete rahenge.
Global Stage Par Naya Power Equation: Russia aur SCO Ka Angle
India aur China ka paas aana sirf ek bilateral mudda nahi hai. Isse poore global power equation mein ek bada badlav aa raha hai. Is kahani mein ek teesra ahem khiladi hai – Russia. Russia, China aur India, teeno hi ek aisi ‘multipolar’ duniya chahte hain jahan sirf America ka dabdaba na ho. Donald Trump ki policies ne in teeno deshon ko aur bhi kareeb la diya hai. Platforms jaise Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) aur BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) ab zyada ahem ho gaye hain.
In manchon par yeh desh aatankvaad, climate change, aur international trade ke niyamon par ek common stand le rahe hain, jo aksar American stand se alag hota hai. SCO military exercises mein pehli baar Indian aur Chinese sainik ek saath hissa le rahe hain. Yeh tasveer apne aap mein ek bada sandesh deti hai. Yeh ek naye ‘Eastern Bloc’ ki shuruaat ho sakti hai, jo Western dominance ko challenge karega. Is geopolitical uthal-puthal mein Bharat apne patte bahut sambhal kar khel raha hai – ek taraf America ke saath strategic partnership ko mazboot kar raha hai (jaise Quad mein), toh doosri taraf China aur Russia ke saath milkar apne interests ko surakshit kar raha hai. Yeh ek classic balancing act hai, jismein Bharat ki videsh neeti ki asli pariksha ho rahi hai.
Aage Ki Raah: Dosti Tikegi Ya Sirf Mauke Ki Nazaakat?
Toh hum wapas usi sawaal par aate hain – kya yeh dosti tikegi? Kya Dragon aur Elephant sach mein shaanti se ek saath reh sakte hain? Iska seedha jawab dena jaldbazi hogi. Sach toh yeh hai ki yeh rishta vishwas se zyada zaroorat par tika hai. Yeh ek ‘transactional relationship’ hai. Jab tak dono deshon ko ek doosre ki zaroorat hai, jab tak unhe American pressure ka saamna karna hai, tab tak yeh ‘bhai-bhai’ ka naara chalta rahega. Tazakhabhar.com ka analysis kehta hai ki is dosti ki umar is baat par nirbhar karegi ki White House mein kaun baitha hai aur uski policies kya hain.
Iske alawa, border dispute, Pakistan ke saath China ki gehri dosti, aur aapas mein competition jaise kai buniyaadi mudde abhi bhi maujood hain. Yeh woh zameen ke neeche dabi mines hain jo kabhi bhi phat sakti hain. Lekin, filhaal, dono deshon ke netritva ne samjhdaari dikhate hue in muddo ko peeche rakhkar aage badhne ka faisla kiya hai. Yeh ek avsar hai, ek ‘window of opportunity’, jiska fayda uthakar dono desh aarthik roop se aur mazboot ho sakte hain. Lekin is ‘China-India Bhai-Bhai 2.0’ ki script abhi likhi jaa rahi hai, aur iska climax kya hoga, yeh toh aane wala waqt hi batayega. Aap padhte rahiye Tazakhabhar.com, kyunki is khabar par hamari nazar bani hui hai.
News Source – The Economic Times
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